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FUTURE TECHNOLOGY - Through a glass darkly?
Professor William Webb argues that it is possible to predict the next 20 years of wireless with reasonable certainty. Given that, writing in 2000, his predictions on the development of wireless communications in 2005 proved to be pretty accurate, he may well have a point
Many take the view that the pace of technological change is becoming ever faster. This is seen as particularly so in the worlds of computers and communications. If this were so, it would perhaps be rather foolish to predict what the world of wireless might look like 10 and 20 years hence.
For example, in 2000 I made my first prediction of the future, published in a book called The Future of Wireless Communications. Based on a mix of deduction and contributions it predicted what the world would be like in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. When we reached 2005, I analysed how accurate my predictions had been. They were almost exactly right. The only areas of difference were in the particular standards that would 'win' – for example in 2000 it was unclear whether BlueTooth, WiFi or cellular picocells would dominate in the home, although it was clear that wireless home networks would increasingly emerge. Interestingly, in overall terms I predicted little change of substance between 2000 and 2005, and that is exactly what transpired.
In 2006 I repeated the exercise, taking a long hard look at the current industry position and making some fresh predictions for 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. These predictions are detailed in Wireless Communications: The Future, published in early 2007.
Some of my conclusions were contrary to current thinking and in particular to the view that technology is changing ever more quickly. For example, I came to the view that that there would not be a completely new '4th generation' of cellular as 3G reaches the limits of what is possible in a radio channel; that fixed wireless access would not succeed – even with the advent of WiMax technology; and that W-LAN in the home will provide the basis for convergence between home and cellular systems and not cellular 'femtocells'. I considered industry structure and drew the conclusion that the current vertically integrated approach where operators own networks and provide customer facing services was not sustainable in the long term, but would persist for many years and, in doing so, would slow convergence.
I took a look at adoption rates; at average monthly spend on telecommunications and its change over time; and at the process whereby new concepts become assimilated into society. This led to the conclusion that services take between five and ten years to be adopted, even if the service is 'perfect' and that spending on communications can only grow slowly.
Finally I studied the theory of wireless communications and the many physical and empirical laws that have been used to predict future developments, noting that some, like Moore's Law, are likely to continue to hold true for decades, whereas others, such as Guilder's Law, are already inaccurate and cannot be used as a basis for prediction. I examined a whole raft of emerging technologies such as cognitive radio, smart or MIMO antennas, fibre radio and much more. I concluded that none of these advances was likely to make a significant difference, instead steady growth in wireless capacity will be driven by ever smaller cells.
Major growth areas will include ever-enhanced handsets, home wireless networks, intelligent software and service provisioning. Areas where change will be beneficial but very slow coming will be in battery capacity and the ability to cheaply backhaul high capacity small base stations.
Compared to the predictions I made in 2000 there is much alignment. Where there is a difference, it is almost always a delay in 2006 predictions compared to the 2000 predictions, showing how slowly many things develop in the world of wireless and how easy it is to over-predict change.
In summary, I believe that it is possible to predict the next 20 years of wireless with reasonable certainty. For the user, the next 20 years will see a very substantial, but steady change. Users will come to rely on their handset as a single device to manage their communications and indeed, much of their life. It will truly become a “remote control on life”, with massively enhanced capabilities including huge storage, advanced methods of user interaction such as speech recognition and many in-built tools such as cameras, music players, etc. Users will cease to differentiate between different communications channels and instead see the world as one large communications network, able to provide them whatever content they need wherever they are. Users will also no longer see broadcasting and communications as separate and indeed, the concept of broadcasting will change dramatically to one of content provision that is sought out by users – more like the publishing model of today. Users will perceive their lives becoming more convenient with wireless systems automating a range of tasks, providing new capabilities and altering travel according to conditions.
Achieving all of this will require little in the way of change for wireless technology – and indeed no further significant advances in wireless technology are expected. However, there will be substantial progress in the intelligent systems that use context to configure devices appropriately, control interaction with the handset, and control home and office networks in a simple, yet intelligent manner.
Overall, the future is marked by an initial period of stability as 3G and broadband networks are built out followed by the emergence of new services. Beyond this I expect the underlying wireless communications infrastructure to become a slow-changing utility similar, for example, to railways or, increasingly, the core Internet infrastructure, but with substantial excitement and growth around the services provided on top of this wireless platform.
Professor William Webb is Head of Research and Development at Ofcom. He is a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering and a member of the Board of Trustees of the IET.
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