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60% of Western European residential voice spend to be on mobile and VoIP by 2010, says new report
By 2010, mobile and voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) services will account for more than 60% of residential voice spend in Western Europe and up to a quarter of households will have abandoned plain old telephony services (POTS), according to a new report, ‘Fixed-Mobile Substitution and VoIP: forecasts for the battle for mass-market voice,’ published by Analysys, the global advisers on telecoms, IT and media.
“The mass market for voice services in Western Europe is being transformed by the substitution of mobile and new VoIP services for traditional fixed voice services,” says Katrina Bond, lead author of the report. “We expect that in five years 45% of voice minutes will be made from a mobile or VoIP connection, compared to 28% in 2004.” According to the report, POTS services will account for just 39% of declining spend on residential voice services by 2010.
The report reveals that there has already been substantial fixed-mobile substitution in Western Europe - mobile networks accounted for 51% of voice spend in 2004 - and predicts that mobile voice services will account for 35% of voice minutes and 57% of voice spend in 2010. Meanwhile, POTS will also face competition from retail VoIP services.
“The usage of broadband connections for VoIP is at a nascent stage in Western Europe currently, but the scene will change dramatically over the next five years,” says Bond. “In 2010, it is estimated that VoIP could account for 9.6% of voice minutes, but only around 3.6% of voice spend because of its low price compared with POTS services.” The report points out that consumers’ spend on voice services will decline as a percentage of disposable income because falling prices for all voice services will enable spend to be transferred to other services or uses of time.
‘Fixed-Mobile Substitution and VoIP: forecasts for the battle for mass-market voice’ provides detailed forecasts of connections, minutes and spend for the residential voice market in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK and for Western Europe as a whole. By taking a unified view of the voice market, the report is able to provide new insight into how the effects of fixed-mobile substitution and VoIP will impact different countries, says Analysis.
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